Investment
FIRE Calculator — Real Estate vs S&P 500 / ETFs
How many properties (or how much in S&P 500 / ETFs) do you need to retire?
Defaults adjusted for selected country.
Your FIRE Goal
Real Estate Path
Your FIRE Number
$36,000/year
Total passive income needed per year
S&P 500 / ETFs reach FIRE faster in your scenario.
Properties Needed
1
properties
Total Capital Required
$-300,000
Years to FIRE
60 years
Age at FIRE
95
Monthly Cash Flow per Property
$-550/month
4.5%
Portfolio Needed
$900,000
4% rule
Required Monthly Contribution
$703/month
Years to FIRE
16 years
Age at FIRE
51
Expected Annual S&P 500 / ETF Return (%)
10%/year
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)
4%
Path Comparison
For educational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
How It Works
The FIRE Calculator uses the 4% Rule to determine your target portfolio size. In Property mode, it models rental income and appreciation. In S&P 500 mode, it calculates how long monthly savings take to reach your target. In Mixed mode, a slider splits savings between both strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 4% Rule?
The 4% Rule states that you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one of retirement, then adjust for inflation, and your portfolio should last 30+ years. Your FIRE number = annual expenses × 25.
Why use the S&P 500 as the reference?
The S&P 500 has delivered a historical CAGR of approximately 10.7% (nominal) over the past 25 years. It is the most widely used benchmark for passive investment returns.
How many properties do I need to retire?
It depends on your target monthly income and the net rental yield. If you need €3,000/month and each property nets €500/month, you need 6 properties.
What is the difference between the Mixed and Pure strategies?
A pure property strategy relies on rental income and equity. A pure S&P 500 strategy relies on portfolio growth and the 4% rule. A mixed strategy diversifies between both.
Market benchmarks — Portugal
Sources: Banco de Portugal / INE, 2026
About This Calculator
This calculator helps you determine how real estate investments can contribute to achieving Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE). It projects your real estate portfolio's growth, considering rental income, property appreciation, and your desired withdrawal rate. Ideal for investors looking to leverage real estate for early retirement planning.
How It Works
Input Initial Investment
Enter the initial capital you plan to invest in real estate. This forms the foundation of your portfolio and will be used to acquire your first properties. Consider both cash down payments and potential financing.
Define Property Metrics
Specify key details for your properties, such as average property value, expected annual rental income, and anticipated annual property appreciation rate. These figures are crucial for projecting your portfolio's future value.
Set Investment Horizon
Determine the number of years you plan to actively invest and grow your real estate portfolio before aiming for financial independence. This period influences the compounding effect of your investments.
Specify Withdrawal Rate
Input your desired annual withdrawal rate from your portfolio once you reach financial independence. This rate, typically 3-4%, dictates how much income you can sustainably draw without depleting your principal.
Analyze FIRE Projection
Review the calculator's output, which will show your projected portfolio value, annual passive income, and whether you meet your FIRE target. Adjust inputs to optimize your strategy for early retirement.
Worked Example — Austin, Texas, United States
In Austin, Texas, United States, compare the same own capital against a $360,000 property and $270,000 financing at 6.4%.
- →Use the same time horizon and own-capital amount in every alternative.
- →Enter current local financing, operating-cost and return assumptions.
- →Compare risk, liquidity and after-tax consequences as well as the headline result.
The comparison is locally framed but remains sensitive to the assumptions you choose.